Food and water scarce by 2020

31 March 2010
The Gulf will face serious shortages of water, energy and food in the next ten years, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) said yesterday. The EIU said that GCC governments need to start working now to meet forecast surges in demand caused by a population increase of 30 per cent to 50 million people by 2020 and a soaring gross domestic product. Water is already a scarce resource in the Gulf and it is a problem that is likely to get worse. "The next ten years will see rising water dem-and, as the GCC's expanding middle class adopts an increasingly water-intensive lifestyle, featuring private swimming pools, gardens requiring big sprinkler systems, and even a growing interest in golf," the EIU said.

"Regionally, a combination of rising temperatures and expanding populations suggests that water will become increasingly scarce in the Middle East, and raises concerns about the long-term possibility of conflicts over water." The unit said that water conservation has to be promoted to the public and more investment into water projects is needed. Rami Ghandour, executive director of Metito, which supplies water and wastewater treatment systems, told the EIU there was an urgent need to speed up investments in water projects, which have not been seen as "glamorous" compared to high-profile mega-projects. Meanwhile, spikes in global food prices also have a big impact in the Gulf and food imports are projected to grow to $53.1 billion by 2020, according to the EIU. GCC governments and private investors are looking at securing supplies of food, particularly by investing in agriculture abroad.

However, there are critics of this kind of investment that say purchasing large areas of land in places such as Africa can have an adverse impact on local people. "If there appears to be large tracts of unused land, the first step is to ask if it is really unused or if it is being used by pastoralists or by farmers with traditional claims on the land rather than full title," said Ruth Meinzen-Dick, senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute. Conservation of energy resources has not been high on the agenda as the GCC holds 40 per cent of the world's oil reserves and 23 per cent of natural gas reserves. But electricity supply is already outstripping demand, the EIU said.

Najib Saab, secretary-general of the Arab Fund for Environmental Development, said GCC nationals could save about 40 per cent on energy bills by adopting energy-efficient models. "Regulations are needed because producers won't change by themselves. Car firms still export models to the Gulf that were discontinued everywhere else years ago," he said. However, the GCC has started to make some changes, including increasing energy efficiency in buildings and starting significant investment in solar and nuclear technology.

The gulf's vital stats Population:
53.5 million by 2020 Energy:
Electricity demand forecast to grow 42.1 per cent by 2020 Water:
Demand forecast to grow 36 per cent in Dubai and 34 per cent in Saudi Arabia by 2020 Food:
Food imports projected to grow to $53.1 billion by 2020

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